Missouri Senate Race 2024: Kunce Inches Forward While Hawley Casually Loses His Double-Digit Lead, Thanks to Missouri’s “Progressive” Voter Base
As the 2024 Missouri Senate race trudges forward, Democratic hopeful Lucas Kunce, fresh off a packed rally in Festus, MO, has managed to gain some ground on Republican incumbent Josh Hawley. According to the latest poll from GQR, conducted between September 6-12, Kunce has rocketed all the way up to 46%, still four points behind Senator Hawley’s cool 50%. This marks a stunning improvement from earlier polling, where Kunce was trailing by a mere 15 points. So close, right?
Just a week ago, the Missouri Scout-sponsored Remington Research Group poll had Hawley ahead by a comfortable 52% to Kunce’s 37%. Apparently, 645 likely voters now believe Kunce might stand a chance — maybe. But hey, let’s not forget the YouGov poll from mid-August, where Kunce was still playing catch-up with a stellar 42% compared to Hawley’s solid 53%. The momentum is clearly in Kunce’s favor! Or not.
Yet, Kunce’s campaign has one ace up its sleeve: the hot-button issue of abortion rights. After all, why shouldn’t Democrats pin their hopes on this when running in a deeply conservative state that has repeatedly shown it loves change and forward-thinking policies? Surely, Missouri voters will toss aside decades of entrenched red-state values and rally to Kunce’s banner. How could they resist? After all, it’s not like Hawley has locked in his base by championing those beloved "traditional values" or opposing progressive policies. No, definitely not.
The Democrats, in their infinite wisdom, are banking on the abortion rights ballot amendment to magically turn the tide in Missouri. Because when you’re down 15 points one week and only 4 the next, what could go wrong? All Kunce needs to do is hope that Missouri voters — famously open-minded — and projected to turn out and encode abortion right into the state constitution, will decide that this is the year to also flip the state blue. Keep in mind that Kansas also instituted abortion rights last year but that has not made the state any less red. Kansans vote pro-choice while keeping their anti-choice GOP senators. Would Missouri be any different?
But hey, who knows? Maybe Missouri will surprise everyone, and Kunce will ride the wave of progressive enthusiasm all the way to Washington. Or, Hawley will just keep doing what he’s doing, and November 5 will be just another day at the office for him.
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