AI Is Taking Water From the Desert

 The Oasis in the Desert of Dehydration

Goodyear, AZ – On one sweltering September day, a brave soul ventured into the treacherous realm of data centers nestled between a regional airport and some farm fields in Goodyear, Arizona—a daring half-hour drive from downtown Phoenix. As their Uber screeched to a halt next to the nondescript buildings, the temperature climbed to a blistering 97 degrees Fahrenheit. “The air crackled with a latent energy,” they noted, or perhaps it was just the high voltage wires humming above, sending shivers down their spine. Without so much as a palm tree in sight, reality began to blur under the relentless sun.

In 2019, Microsoft boldly announced its plans for this data center—a week after revealing a mere $1 billion investment in the trendiest startup on the block, OpenAI, which would later bestow upon humanity ChatGPT. Since then, OpenAI has been training its models exclusively on Microsoft’s cloud servers, Azure, because, obviously, who needs competition when you can control the cloud? To keep up with this meteoric demand, Microsoft has been on a spending spree, pouring over $10 billion into cloud-computing capacity each quarter. One semiconductor analyst even deemed this “the largest infrastructure buildout that humanity has ever seen.” No big deal.

Our intrepid traveler strolled along the expansive Goodyear site, which seemed to stretch endlessly, flanked by a black fence and the occasional desert shrub. Armed with just two bottles of water, they began their odyssey. According to city documents, Microsoft snagged a whopping 279 acres for this endeavor. For now, the lot boasts two stout buildings with visible vents and pipes, a third in the works, and plans for seven more. How delightful! Each building will be jam-packed with servers that must be kept cool, with the cunning plan to absorb excess heat using “evaporated drinking water.” You know, because why not use the local water supply in a drought-stricken area?

As of 2023, it’s absurd to think this isn’t a recipe for disaster. Phoenix just survived its hottest summer ever, complete with 55 days above 110 degrees, straining the electrical grid and exacerbating a drought that’s the worst in over a millennium. The Colorado River, which provides drinking water and hydropower, is dwindling to a trickle. Meanwhile, farmers are left fallowing fields, and one Phoenix community has been without tap water for most of the year. But hey, who needs water when you have data?

After 20 minutes in the blazing sun, our valiant explorer's water supply dwindled to nothing. Having traversed just two sides of the data center, it was time to throw in the towel. Their face and neck turned crimson, and they began to resemble a lobster rather than a journalist. Tomorrow’s plans included visiting even more data centers run by the likes of Apple, Amazon, and Google. After all, who wouldn’t want to tour a tech graveyard in the middle of the desert?

The American Southwest is a perfect battleground for two pivotal trends: the explosive growth of generative AI and the capricious climate. Goodyear residents are already sounding the alarm, worried about the future. Microsoft, the world’s tech giant, has made ambitious promises to combat climate change. In 2020, the company pledged to become carbon-negative (removing more carbon than it emits) and water-positive (replenishing more water than it consumes) by 2030. But they also made a blanket commitment to OpenAI, the darling of the AI world, kickstarting a race to deploy resource-hungry digital technologies.

With over 300 data centers globally, Microsoft boasted in 2021 about building 50 to 100 new ones annually. As for sustainability, Noelle Walsh, head of the data center division, assured, “Even with our surge in demand and surge in AI, our 2025 goals have stayed the same.” Truly comforting words for a parched desert community.

However, the path to sustainability takes time—years of consultations, research, and risky bets—while AI demands immediate results. Microsoft’s Azure OpenAI Service was reportedly attracting customers at a rate of nearly 100 a day. The corporate enthusiasm was palpable, with executives even suggesting that AI might save the climate. As Eric Boyd, corporate vice president of the AI platform, triumphantly stated, “Every now and then, it’s great to take a step back and marvel at just how far we’ve come in just one year.”

Public data, however, paint a less rosy picture. UC Riverside researchers predict that global AI demand could drain data centers of 1.1 to 1.7 trillion gallons of fresh water by 2027. Meanwhile, a peer-reviewed study from the Netherlands estimates that AI servers’ electricity consumption could balloon to 100 terawatt hours per year—equivalent to the annual consumption of Sweden. Microsoft’s own reports reveal that during the AI platform’s initial growth surge, resource consumption shot up by about a third, marking the largest increase year-over-year.

A Microsoft spokesperson reassured everyone that they’re committed to mitigating the climate crisis. Walsh echoed this sentiment, claiming the company is “being a good neighbor” by funding water conservation projects. But as Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes sagely noted, “Allowing one more data center to come to our state is an easy but stupid decision.” A true beacon of wisdom in the desert wasteland.

In contrast, Chandler, a more affluent city about 40 miles away, has already limited data center growth due to the energy and water costs. With seven data center complexes already on their plate, they decided enough is enough.

As our brave explorer prepared to leave Goodyear, Microsoft was gearing up to spin its narrative at the upcoming United Nations Climate Conference. While Big Tech hailed AI as a savior, one researcher noted that generative AI models have yet to demonstrate significant environmental benefits. Still, Microsoft is investing in a partnership with the UN to track carbon emissions, because measuring problems is half the battle, right?

In the end, as the heat from over 8,000 data centers wafted into the atmosphere, one can only hope that Microsoft’s optimism isn’t just wishful thinking. After all, technology may have landed us in this predicament, but surely it will find a way to rescue us too!As our intrepid traveler wrapped up their trip to Arizona, Microsoft was gearing up to strut its stuff at the world's most prestigious climate event of the year. With the United Nations’ Conference of Parties looming on the horizon, Big Tech companies were busy proclaiming that AI isn't really a source of new emissions—no, no! It’s actually a magical solution, making batteries and buildings more efficient and even reducing food waste. Sasha Luccioni, a researcher and climate lead at the AI firm Hugging Face, chimed in, clarifying that this miraculous efficiency mostly applies to predictive AI models. As for generative ones? Well, they’re still trying to figure out how to justify their growing environmental footprint. But let’s not dwell on the details!

Meanwhile, Microsoft announced a shiny new partnership with the UN, claiming it would use AI to help track global carbon emissions. “Simply put, you can’t fix what you can’t measure,” declared the company’s president, Brad Smith, in a statement that surely echoed like a battle cry for climate-conscious techies everywhere.

But wait! Behind this dazzling narrative, Microsoft was quietly withholding vital measures and projections. Before the climate conference, the company circulated its promotional materials for internal review. Some eagle-eyed employees raised concerns, sharing screenshots of their messages. They pointed out that the documents downplayed the soaring energy costs of AI, suggesting that Microsoft might want to be transparent about how these costs could skyrocket in the coming years.

Walsh, the head of Microsoft’s data center division, confirmed that her team did keep those internal estimates—one for commercial-cloud growth and one for AI. When our curious traveler asked her what those estimates revealed, she simply replied, “I can’t tell you that.” A classic corporate non-answer! Yet these are extraordinary times, after all.

When pressed on how the increased use of natural resources would impact Microsoft’s ambitious goal to eliminate its carbon footprint by the decade’s end, a company spokesman offered an uplifting response. “We remain optimistic regarding our collective ability to decarbonize the global economy while continuing to grow and prosper as a global community.” Ah yes, optimism—because what could possibly go wrong with more than 8,000 data centers humming away and releasing heat into the atmosphere, with countless more on the way?

In a world where technology has led us into this environmental mess, maybe it’s time to have a little faith. After all, if technology got us into this predicament, surely it can lead us out. What a relief!